The bubble burst

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and [right] Sheila Bair, Chairperson of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The troika comprises the Working Group on Financial Markets entrusted with the task of handling the situation arising out of the fast-changing economic landscape.

THE financial dam burst on September 13, 2008. A flood of capital swept out of the stock markets and went into government-backed bank accounts, where they remain, pooled up and inert. These bank accounts are the equivalent of hiding money in one’s mattress. They are shelters from the turbulence of the financial storms. Governments from Japan to the United States struggled to take control over a vast continent of economic life that they had previously given up to the bandits of profit. To re-establish sovereignty over these regions has not been easy, and it has aged many of those who are trying to lead the charge.
In Washington, D.C., President George W. Bush has lost his swagger. Impetuous in front of the press, he now looks grave, grizzled even. Beside him, the members of his Working Group on Financial Markets look ashen-faced, stooped. Sheila Bair, whom Forbes called the second most powerful woman in the world (after German Chancellor Angela Merkel), runs the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. A few years ago, she wrote two books for children on sound money management; now she is in the position to act on her own advice. Beside her is Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve and a former Princeton University professor of Economics (his colleague, Paul Krugman, won the Noble memorial prize in Economics this year). Towering above them is the U.S. Treasury Secretary, the dour-faced Henry Paulson, who studied alongside Bernanke at Harvard before building a fortune at the helm of Goldman Sachs.
This troika has been given the charge of handling the fast-changing economic landscape. There are few smiles from them any longer as they seek to lay their hands on the Wild West. Unwilling sheriffs, these are dyed-in-the-wool adherents of laissez-faire economics.
In 2002, Bernanke spoke at the 90th birthday celebration of Milton Friedman, the dean of free-market economics. Taking a cue from Friedman’s co-authored book on the Great Depression, Bernanke saluted him, saying sorry for having allowed it to happen, and “thanks to you, we won’t do it again”.
The principal lesson spelled out by Friedman, and underscored by Bernanke, was that the central bank must ensure a “stable monetary background” for the economy, keeping inflation low by properly regulating money supply. The other lesson is not an economic one per se but about leadership. Friedman’s book noted that with the death in 1928 of the talented and influential central banker Benjamin Strong, the Federal Reserve was unable to assert proper control over private banks in a time of crisis. What is needed, Bernanke said in 2002, is “an effective leader”. His time is now on hand, as is that of Sheila Bair and Paulson.Slide to bankruptcy
For the month after September 13, the topography of Wall Street changed radically. Bear Stearns (founded in 1923) had already collapsed in March, and was hastily acquired by J.P. Morgan (which later bought the ailing bank Washington Mutual). Lehman Brothers (founded in 1850) declared bankruptcy, and was swept up for a song by Barclay’s Bank. Merrill Lynch (founded in 1914) folded alongside Lehman, to be picked up by Bank of America.
A few days later, American International Group (founded in 1919), the world’s largest insurance company, went down the slope towards bankruptcy but was saved at the eleventh hour by an emergency infusion of $85 billion by the U.S. government (a few weeks later, the Federal Reserve provided an additional loan of almost $38 billion just as reports emerged that executives of the firm went off on a corporate retreat that included golf and spa treatments and cost $440,000).
The government-sponsored mortgage agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (created in 1970 and 1968 respectively) retreated from their autonomy into the embrace of the government. Finally, in mid-October, Wells Fargo Bank absorbed Wachovia Bank (founded in 1879). Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan (founded in 1824) and Goldman Sachs (founded in 1869) went from being investment banks to being bank holding companies (with Mitsubishi taking a stake in J.P. Morgan).
Turbulence on the stock market now resulted in a downward slide for the Dow Jones and, as a consequence, for the world’s stock markets. By September 18, sellers flocked to the pits, asking for their money back, and put whatever could be made liquid into cash backed by governmental assurances. Credit markets seized up, which threatened economic activity outside stock exchanges, investment firms and their computer networks. The pulses of electricity now began to make inroads into the confidence of those who hire and fire, who make and break. It is no surprise that these events aged Paulson.Bush unpopular
Bush and Paulson tried to put the best face on events, even as these escalated out of control. A year ago, as the mortgage crisis threatened the stability of the U.S. economy, Bush told the country: “The fundamentals of our economy are strong.... Job creation is strong. Real after-tax wages are on the rise. Inflation is low.” Each time he faces the country these days, the Dow Jones plummets. Nothing he can say helps, and his approval rating continues to go the way of the stock indices (around 22 per cent of the population now approves of him).
Until recently, Paulson also tried to put a cheery face despite the slide of the stock markets. In the spring of 2007, when all indications turned towards a major lurch downward, Paulson lectured the Shanghai Futures Exchange about the need for an open society: “An open, competitive, liberalised financial market can effectively allocate scarce resources in a manner that promotes stability and prosperity far better than government intervention.” Every once in a while Paulson tries to be optimistic, even as his body language is gloomy. He often looks as if he is searching for the nearest exit.On September 19, Paulson proposed the Emergency Economic Stabilisation Act, which promised to put $700 billion into the credit market, mainly to purchase toxic assets off the books of the financial firms. No one knows the exact size of this toxic pool, and even Paulson admitted that the figure he chose was largely a guess (the Treasury Department said the number was “not based on any particular data point”, jargon for speculation). Asked what he might do if this plan did not work, Paulson responded, “We have nothing else.”
The plan was quickly attacked by right-wing Republicans who saw it as, in the words of Representative Jeb Hensarling from Texas, the “slippery slope to socialism”. They preferred a package that included a cut in capital gains tax and further deregulation. Sections of the Democratic Party found the plan objectionable because it gave Paulson unlimited authority, and did not constrain the way the CEO class in Wall Street do business or earn. Bush and Paulson threatened the Representatives with a wholesale collapse of the system, and even with the promulgation of some kind of martial law. Pressure from Wall Street on the mandarins of both parties finally moved Congress to pass the Bill.
The ambit of the $700 billion bailout was limited. It was designed to clean up the balance sheets of the financial firms and to restore the credit that flowed between banks and to the public. Paulson assumed that as this credit entered the system, normal economic vibrancy would pick up. In other words, the Bush team saw this as a solvency crisis created by bad loans made by irresponsible bankers and not as a wider problem of debt in American society. Two bubbles
In the 1990s, the U.S. economy experienced a boom thanks in large part to two bubbles: one generated by the hype over the Internet and information technology in general and the other generated by consumer debt. The first bubble burst in 2000-01, when dotcom firms failed to live up to their overblown expectations. The second bubble shuttled back and forth between different areas of the consumer economy, from credit cards to mortgages. Disposable incomes, already curtailed, are being haemorrhaged toward debt servicing; more money goes to pay off debt than to buy food.
The household debt crisis erupted in the 1990s, largely because of the stagnation in real wages (more than a quarter of U.S. workers labour for wages below the poverty line). As ordinary people struggled to hold on to jobs, they turned to the generous credit markets to pay off their overpriced homes, their cars, their college tuitions and their everyday expenses.
The federal government kept interest rates very low to enable this expanse of debt, which was one easy way to maintain the illusion of the American Dream as U.S. manufacturing disappeared and pay packets in service jobs shrank. The total consumer debt in the U.S. is now about $2.6 trillion (22 per cent more than in 2000). Mortgage debt is around $10.5 trillion (in 2000 it was $4.8 trillion). This debt will not be written off by the bailout. It is indeed a major flashpoint for the next explosion.
Alan Greenspan, as head of the Federal Reserve, maintained interest rates to enable the large expansion of the 1990s. But that money did not go towards infrastructure development or investment in industry. Rather, it went towards the consumer debt bubble and to the vastly expanded market in financial commodities (such as the mortgage securities, the derivatives market and also the debt itself, now packaged as securities).
No one knows the exact size of the fictitious sector, but some estimate that the credit default swap market alone is about $62 trillion. The danger this poses to the financial architecture is considerable. This is particularly the case as the major banks and investment houses now consolidate into four companies (J.P. Morgan Chase, Citicorp, Bank of America and Wachovia Wells Fargo). The toxic fictitious sector and the equally unstable consumer debt bubble are within the balance sheets of these four entities. The bailout does not address this toxicity, which will inevitably corrode the remaining banks.
How the toxic assets came onto the balance sheets of the banks is a story that Wall Street, the Bush team and those who worked in Bill Clinton’s Treasury Department want to ignore. Before the entire issue could be swept under the rug, presidential contender Barack Obama came out fairly strongly against deregulation as “a philosophy that views even the most common-sense regulations as unwise and unnecessary”.
It is true that since Bill Clinton’s second term (1997-2001) and through the eight years of George Bush’s presidency the entire legal framework for regulation of financial markets had been eroded. Whatever laws remained on the books could not be regulated as the Bush team studiously sliced the small remaining staff at the Securities and Exchange Commission, where the enforcement team is now 1,209 and will drop to 1,177 next year. (There are more lawyers on one floor of an investment bank than in the entire SEC enforcement division.)
The General Accounting Office reported that the SEC’s budget is so meagre that it is forced to “be selective in its enforcement activities and… [this has] lengthened the time required to complete certain enforcement investigations”. In 2004, before he became head of the Treasury Department, Henry Paulson led a group of bankers to the SEC and lobbied successfully to exempt investment banks from holding reserves against losses on investments. The investment banks subsequently leveraged their fictitious investments beyond reason. The current bailout does not address this erosion of responsibility, even as Obama has made it a central part of his own plan were he to become President.
Bankers were not enthused by the bailout, which is why they did not renew lending to each other. The market was starved of credit, and so the $700 billion bailout seemed ineffective. The normally staid Wall Street Journal, a reliable free-market periodical, weighed in, with one of its seasoned columnists arguing that the “government needs to inject capital directly into banks”. In other words, the government needs to seize control of the banking industry.
The Working Group apparently paid attention to this, and on October 14, convened in the Cash Room of the U.S. Treasury to call reluctantly for the government to “purchase equity stakes in a wide array of banks and thrifts”. Paulson, who made the announcement, could not bring himself to say that the government had nationalised the banks. Indeed, his laissez faire carapace made him apologise for the action: “We regret having to take these actions…. Government owning a stake in any private U.S. company is objectionable to most Americans – me included. Yet the alternative of leaving businesses and consumers without access to financing is totally unacceptable. When financing isn’t available, consumers and businesses shrink their spending, which leads to businesses cutting jobs and even closing up shop.”
Reasonable estimates suggest that the Treasury Department will have to expend about $2.25 trillion on this extended bailout. To this must be added the already significant national debt and the escalating military budget and war expenditure (the Iraq and Afghanistan war bills now total in the vicinity of $1 trillion).
In 2004 and in 2005, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned the U.S. about its big budget deficits and consumer spending. The U.S. economic engine, the IMF warned in 2005, was “fuelled by increasingly unsustainable fiscal stimulus, as well as housing prices that are ignoring the laws of gravity”. Unlike most other governments, the U.S. administration sneered at the report and its recommendations.
“We want to make sure that the way we address the imbalances maximises growth,” said a Treasury official, making it clear that the government wanted to ride the boom for as long as it lasted, regardless of the consequences. As September moved into October the Treasury Department did not adequately take the measure of its main creditors: Europe is in the doldrums, China did not respond with its considerable treasure, Japan fears a repeat of its own long-term stagnation, and the sovereign funds of the oil lands preferred to put their billions into their own fledgling stock exchanges rather than into Wall Street or Washington’s coffers. In 2004, the IMF warned that “higher borrowing costs abroad would mean that the adverse effects of the U.S. fiscal deficit would spill over into global investment and output”. This has indeed come to pass.Decline in spending
On October 15, the Federal Reserve released The Beige Book, its report published eight times a year on current economic conditions in the Federal Reserve districts. It showed that in September consumer spending had declined in retailing, auto sales and tourism.
This is the first formal indication of the impact of the crisis. Things are so bad that General Motors released a statement that “bankruptcy is not an option” for the company. The Labour Department announced that the U.S. lost 159,000 jobs in September, up from 73,000 jobs lost in August. The Wall Street Journal released its survey of 52 economists who pointed out that things can only be negative.

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Art of the Deal

WHEN THE COUNTRY'S best-known painter, Maqbool Fida Husain, inked a deal to sell 100 canvases for Rs.100 crores, he concluded the biggest transaction in the history of Indian contemporary art. The significance of this humungous deal — which gives the rights of a series of paintings on the theme "Our Planet Our Earth" to a Mumbai-based industrialist — goes well beyond the interests of the two parties involved in it. A transaction of this scale can provide the much-needed impetus to the market for contemporary Indian art — one that has been growing steadily over the years but, in global terms, still very much in its infancy. It could help in establishing new benchmarks in the pricing of Indian art, which is undervalued in the global market, and provide a further dash of confidence to dealers, art collectors and others who want to dabble in what is an emerging market. Significantly, the Mumbai industrialist, Guru Swarup Srivatsava, who has agreed to buy the paintings, had an eye on nothing but the bottomline. He is not an art collector but an investor in the futures market; someone who has admitted to perceiving iron ore and art in the very same way and who apparently showed an interest in the latter only because he felt it was better to put his money into "intellectual property rather than land."
Art markets around the world are driven by such cold commercial calculation rather than airy sentiment. It is much too premature, and possibly erroneous, to conclude that this transaction will raise valuations of Indian painting in general. But it will certainly lead to greater international attention being paid to the country's contemporary art — a rich tradition that dates back to the painters of the so-called Company School such as Raja Ravi Varma, the revivalists of the Bengal school who breathed new life into painting such as Abanindranath Tagore, and the more recent and contemporary crop of artists who draw their inspiration from varied sources and belong to diverse genres. The value of contemporary art has been closely linked to international interest; prices of canvases by Indian painters surged after international auctions were launched in the mid-1990s. The entry of auction houses such as Sotheby's and Christie's has fuelled considerable interest and prices of works by some major painters have shown a sustained increase, sometimes as much as by 20 per cent annually.

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American terror

YET another attack by the United States Air Force on suspected Taliban hideouts has resulted in the death of innocent civilians. In one of the worst atrocities witnessed so far after the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan in 2001, at least 90 civilians were killed in an air strike on Azizabad village in Herat province on August 22. The victims had gathered there to commemorate the death of a local leader, and according to the government of Afghanistan, 50 of those killed were under the age of 15. Reports said the attack was carried out by an AC-130 gunship.
President Hamid Karzai was quick to condemn the killings. He accused the U.S. forces of “martyring at least 70 people, most of them women and children”. On many occasions earlier, when U.S./North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces had killed civilians from the air, an anguished Karzai had asked the U.S. to exercise caution. A spokesman for the Afghan Army said officials had counted 60 children and 10 women among the dead. Karzai tried belatedly to douse public anger by sacking two top Afghan military officials who had initially claimed that all those killed in the air attack were Taliban fighters. Taliban fighters are now operating virtually at the gates of Kabul. Despite the presence of more than 70,000 Western troops, the Taliban has managed to gain territory in Maydan Shar, the capital of Wardak province, which is less than 40 km from the capital. Since July, the Taliban has also stepped up attacks on the

At the Guder camp where Pakistanis fleeing the fighting in the tribal areas near Bajur, believed to be hideouts of the Taliban, take refuge. More than 300,000 people have been displaced from their homes and have ended up in camps such as this in Peshawar and other places in Pakistan.

Kabul-Jalalabad road, the main supply route for NATO forces.
The Western media have reported regular attacks in recent weeks on truck convoys carrying materials for NATO forces heading for Kabul. The road from Kabul to Kandahar is also very unsafe. Vehicles can only move if they are protected by units of the Afghan Army. In the third week of August, the Taliban killed 10 French soldiers in Sarobi, 50 km from Kabul, on the Kabul-Jalalabad road. French President Nicholas Sarkozy had, under pressure from Washington, agreed to dispatch 700 more soldiers to Afghanistan this year, sparking a controversy in France. The war in Afghanistan is unpopular in France and the other European countries that

An attack by the U.S. Air Force in Azizabad village in Afghanistan’s Herat province on August 22 killed family members of this woman as also of many others. It was one of the worst air strikes since the U.S. occupation of the country in 2001

have troops on the ground in Afghanistan. As the Taliban advances stealthily, Washington is ratcheting up the pressure on Islamabad to crack down with full military force on its tribal areas. The Pakistani Army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, was summoned by the Pentagon for yet another top-level strategy meeting in the last week of August. Kayani had earlier met senior NATO and Afghan military officials in Kabul. The meeting, held on board the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, was attended by Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and other senior American officers playing key roles in the anti-insurgency operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.Of the 33,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, 19,000 operate directly under U.S. Central Command. The rest are part of the 40-nation force led by NATO, which operates under a U.N. resolution. With the occupation force unable to stem the Taliban tide, the Pakistani government, under pressure from Washington, ordered its Air Force to target relentlessly the tribal areas where Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters are supposedly holed up. Admiral Mullen told the media that the U.S. and Pakistani militaries must intensify efforts to crack down on insurgents. According to reports in the Pakistani media, the NATO command will identify the areas of resistance and the Pakistani Army will target those places on its behalf.

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Blend of Faith

Brahma, Adinath temple, Khajuraho. The Hindu and Jaina temples in Khajuraho, the capital of the Chandella kings from the early 10th to the 12th century, have a shared style that has no sectarian differences. In fact, there is a profuse depiction of Hindu deities on the walls of the Jaina temples here.

IN western India, the 2nd century B.C. ushered in one of the greatest periods of Buddhist art when, in about a thousand years, more than 1,200 caves were hewn out of the mountains of the Western Ghats. Most of them were sculpted profusely and painted in the Buddhist tradition.
The first phase of the prolific excavation continued until the 3rd century A.D. Great Buddhist prayer halls and viharas for the residence of monks were made during the rule of the Satavahanas and the Kshatrapas. Though these kings revered Hindu deities, they patronised all religious establishments.Such was the cosmopolitan culture that continued from the earliest times in the Indian subcontinent. Scholars such as Guru Padmasambhava and Santarakshita, who were responsible for spreading Buddhism across Asia, are known to have studied here.
There are no gods in the early philosophic vision of India. There are deities: deities that are the personifications of concepts and qualities. The qualities are within us and by responding to these deities brought to us in art, we awaken those fine aspects within us.
In ancient India, people were free to adore the deity of their personal choice. Within families, husbands, wives and children often followed the path of different deities.
In the Gupta period, the effort was to create deities, in a human form, that rose above themselves. It was not a human being caught in the web of the material world. It was an embodiment of that which was eternal, that which was still, undisturbed by turmoil and cravings. Meditating upon such a form, devotees awakened the best within themselves. They rose above the pains created by their desires and confusion.The magnificent rock-cut caves at Ellora near Aurangabad mark the final stage of the development of cave-temple architecture in western India. There are caves of three faiths here, of overlapping periods. The Buddhist caves date from the mid-6th century to the mid-8th century A.D.; the Hindu caves date from the 7th to the 9th century; and the Jaina caves date from the 9th to the end-10th century. These show again the simultaneous patronage of monuments of more than one faith.
Xuanzang wrote enthusiastic accounts of his travels in India. These are written from a pilgrim’s point of view. Nevertheless, they provide much in

Bahubali, Jaina Cave, Badami, 6th century. The Jaina saint Gomatesvara, or Bahubali, is believed to have meditated in a standing, still posture for so long that creepers grew about his legs and snakes and other creatures gathered around him. The play of light in the rock-cut cave enhances the experience of the sacred interior

formation about ancient India. The traveller was greatly impressed by King Harsha of the 7th century. Owing to the ruler’s generous patronage of Buddhist establishments, he descri

What remains of Nalanda University, Bihar. This internationally renowned Buddhist university flourished under the rule of the Gupta kings, most of whom revered Hindu deities. The courses of study covered Buddhist philosophy as well as Hindu shastras.

bes him as a “great Buddhist king”. However, Harsha’s own inscriptions show that he was a devout Hindu worshipper. Harsha’s dramas, written on Buddhist ethics, are performed in Japan even today.Joyous worshippers and musicians

Indra riding the elephant Airavata, his vehicle. Carved on the veranda of the vihara Cave No. 18 at the Bhaja Caves of the 2nd century B.C., this is one of the earliest-known representations of the deity. The style has similarities with the terracottas of the Sunga period. Indra continued to be popular in Buddhist art in subsequent centuries. He is also depicted as the one who, along with Brahma, receives Siddhartha on a cloth when he is born from the side of Queen Mahamaya.

are seen everywhere in the paintings of Kashmiri Buddhist monasteries. It is this sense of lyrical joy that is the hallmark of the ancient art of Kashmir. We are reminded that one of the greatest Indian philosophers of aesthetics, Abhinavagupta, lived in Kashmir in the 10th century.
Parihaspura in Kashmir was a great centre of Buddhist and Hindu worship in the 8th century. Stupas and chaityas made here would have served

The red sandstone cliffs of Badami in Karnataka offered a spectacular setting for the excavation of four caves, three Hindu and one Jaina, in the 6th century A.D. during the rule of the Chalukyas.

as the models for the Buddhist art of central Asia. The site had a Buddhist chaitya as well as a Vishnu temple dedicated by King Lalitaditya. In that cosmopolitan culture, Parihaspura also had an impressive stupa made by the king’s Tocharian minister.
In the spiritual climate that continued from ancient times, there were no boundaries between faiths in the early medieval period too. The same person is most often described as a devotee of different deities, depending upon the occasion. Examples of this are numerous. Such religious divisions are a later construct by scholars who have tried to understand Indian history from a vastly different perspective. At an international seminar on Asian religions in 2007, a message was read out by the Secretary to His Majesty King Rama IX, in which it was said: “Court Brahmins and astrologers were a fixture of the court as they were integral to the timing of auspicious days for the holding of Hindu rites for the divine God-like-kings who were personifications of Siva, Vishnu and Brahma; but at the same time being Buddhist kings. The Brahmins officiated at the ceremony of coronation whereby they opened the gates of heaven for the Hindu gods to descend and thus make the person of the king God-like and empowered with dignity and grace.”
In Buddhist Japan, after the Buddha, the second-most revered deity is Saraswati. There are many temples dedicated to her in Tokyo, as well as numerous images of her in Buddhist temples. When the great Daibutsu (Big Buddha) temple of Nara was to be dedicated in the 8th century, they could not find a suitable learned Brahmin priest for the task in Japan. Therefore, a priest was brought from Myanmar. Images of a vast range of Hindu deities are seen in the temple complex. The early Buddhist caves of China have paintings of Krishna, Siva and Parvati.

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Of Zardaris ,Bhuttos & Musharaffs

Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of the slain former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and a controversial politician with little experience in governing, was elected president of Pakistan on Saturday. Describing his victory as “another step towards the transition to democracy”, Zardari said at in iftar hosted at PM Gilani’s residence: “I reiterate parliament is sovereign. This President shall be subservient to the parliament.” Flanked by daughters Bakhtawar and Asifa, he said, “We (took) revenge on the dictators in the form of democracy. She (Bhutto) taught us how to live, how to do politics...” Results from voting in the two houses of parliament, and three of four provincial assemblies, showed that Zardari had easily prevailed over his closest competitor. Zardari, 53, who spent 11 years in jail on corruption charges that were not proven, succeeds Pervez Musharraf, who resigned as president last month under the threat of impeachment. The elevation of Zardari to the presidency, where he will have great powers, including the ability to dissolve parliament and name the head of the Pakistani army, comes with the tacit approval of the United States.

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India Nabled

The deal is done. And it’s a big deal for India. It has gained unique status as the only nuclear weapons power to be allowed global nuclear commerce without signing either the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty or Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, until now a precondition for entering the elite nuclear club. When the NSG ‘‘adjusted its guidelines’’ for India on Saturday, after 76 hours of high drama, it marked a delicious irony. It came into being 34 years ago as a response to India’s 1974 Pokharan test and yet, on Saturday, the NSG was bending its rules to accommodate India’s nuclear ambitions. The NSG’s approval was also Manmohan Singh’s moment. The Prime Minister, who had quietly worked out the architecture of the Indo-US nuclear deal with US President George Bush, made history on Saturday by salvaging the agreement, while staving off the threat to his government and political career. Singh described the NSG waiver as a ‘‘forwardlooking and momentous decision’’. Bush praised Singh for his ‘‘strong leadership’’ in ensuring success at Vienna. Indian foreign secretary Shivshankar Menon said the waiver gives India access to full civilian nuclear cooperation with the rest of the world. The text of the waiver is yet to be made public. The deal will not just give India access to nuclear fissile material and technology to mount a credible nuclear energy programme, it will also open up certain key high-tech industries such as pharma, IT, space and defence. But the implications go much beyond energy and technology. In strategic terms, it now brings India closer to the US and several key European countries. At the same time, it might bring a certain frostiness to India’s relations with China as expected after Beijing’s sudden objections in Vienna to the waiver. Even so, Beijing formally welcomed New Delhi to the nuclear club after the NSG finally nodded it through. The NSG’s exception for India did not come easily but happened because of recognition for India as an emerging power with a stable democratic system, growing market economy and business appeal. India’s earlier unilateral moratorium to nuclear testing — made by the Vajpayee government and cited by foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee on Saturday morning — helped winning over the last naysayers. WHAT IT MEANS? UNIQUE STATUS: Ends 34-year nuclear isolation following 1974 Pokharan test. India now gets N-technology, keeps its nuclear program, doesn’t sign NPT, CTBT N-MAINSTREAM: India can carry out nuclear trade, gets options for nuclear power and access to sensitive hi-tech that serves industry but is also used for nuclear technology; will help sectors like IT, space, pharma, defence, manufacturing RISING POWER: Shows India as an emerging power. Waiver also came as India seen as a stable democracy and growing market economy STRATEGIC SHIFT: India comes closer to the US. As also France, Germany, UK, other European countries, Russia, Japan, Australia. Indo-China ties could get frosty GREAT DIVIDE: De-hyphenation with Pak complete. India now in category of responsible N-powers with impeccable non-proliferation record WHAT NEXT? US Congress expected to take up Indo-US 123 pact when it meets on Monday. It must be approved by Sept 28, when the session ends Bush expected to ask Congress to skip mandatory 30-day period required for putting up pact for approval. Would like to see it through without re-look Both sides may sign pact when PM goes to US at month’s end. India will then sign similar pacts with other N-suppliers POWERING AHEAD ALL EYES NOW ON US CONGRESS Vienna: With the NSG crossed, the scene will shift to the US for the final ratification of the Indo-US nuclear civil cooperation agreement by an up-down vote of the US Congress which meets on Monday. The Bush administration is expected to persuade American lawmakers to pass the pact before the session ends by September 26 by not insisting on the mandatory 30-day session period required to present the agreement for approval. If all goes well, Manmohan Singh will sign the agreement with President Bush in Washington towards the end of the month. Back to the NSG’s decision, it came Saturday morning after two days of bruising diplomacy that saw the last of the conscientious objectors wilting under sustained US pressure. Six of the last objectors — Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, Netherlands and Switzerland — relented after India went the extra mile to reassure them about its nonproliferation commitments, and the US, France and UK leaned on them. Until Friday night, when the NSG sat, exhausted through round after round of talks until 2.30 am, two things happened. A modification was made in the waiver text that had been circulating for a week, but with which some countries still had problems. Here, India’s statement earlier in the day came in handy, and a link was made between India’s commitments and the adjustment of the guidelines.

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A Bend in The River

The floods in north Bihar are back. Each year, Bihar faces a cycle of destruction, involuntary displacement, migration and large-scale loss of human life, cattle, crops and infrastructure. Even within this recurrent theme of annual misery, the Kosi river breaching its embankment has been catastrophic — a disaster unprecedented in living memory. The Kosi, emanating in the Himalayas, is a part of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Meghna riverine system, which carries within its fold a population of 1.3 billion people spread across five countries, including China, and is home to some of the world’s poorest. The Kosi is one of the tributaries of the Ganges and travels through the upper mountainous regions in Nepal before entering the plains of Bihar and merging with the Ganges several hundred kilometres downstream. Given the crystalline nature of the rock and its young morphology, it carries in its path large quantities of silt and other matter which are not alluvial and of infertile nature. This silt is deposited in the plains of Bihar. The trouble is further compounded by the steep gradient from which the river emerges and enters the Bihar plains. Its large deposits of silt and gradient force the river to meander along unpredictable paths thus earning for itself the name of ‘river of sorrow’. The first credible attempt to tame the river began in 1956 after the devastating floods of 1954. Jawaharlal Nehru directed the Central Water Commission to prepare a feasibility project to suggest a long-term solution. The mandarins of the Central Water Commission did a hydrological survey and prepared a report of that region. The commission suggested the construction of a high dam (239 metre) at Barakshetra about 50 km within Nepal to be backed by a barrage downstream. For several reasons, including cost, a focus on to the Bhakra Nangal project and the complexities in the construction of multiple structures, this option was shelved. As an interim arrangement, the government settled on a barrage at Hanuman Nagar, Birpur. Thus, the first credible attempt to tame the river began in 1956 with an eastern and a western embankment of 105 and 106 km respectively of which about 32 km of the eastern embankment is in Nepal. These embankments were completed in 1959. The barrage at Birpur to regulate water flow was finished in 1964. The Indo-Nepalese agreement between the two countries, which facilitated this project, brought benefits to both India and Nepal. The Nepalese side, however, continued to question the benefits from the project. Nepal had all along wanted a barrage system further upstream which they believed would have yielded more optimum returns.

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Sports Agony

While the nation celebrates its best-ever performance at the Olympics, it’s time perhaps to take a cold shower of reality to put the achievement in perspective. India’s medal haul of three at Beijing still places us among the spectacular underachievers at the Games. If a study published just before the Beijing Games is any pointer, India’s size and social indicators suggest that the ‘‘ideal’’ medal count of the country, Games after Games, should have been higher than what we have achieved. Consider this: If population alone is taken as an indicator of sporting success, India should have ended up with 160 medals, second only to China, which ought to have bagged 187. However, in their paper published in the Economic and Political Weekly, economists Anirudh Krishna and Eric Haglund argue that it’s not just population but the ‘‘effective participants’’ in a country that determines its medal haul. Effective participants are the number of people who are in a position to take part in sporting activities — assuming that potential Olympic achievers are randomly distributed in the population of every country. This excludes a large number of poor and marginalized Indians from the race. Krishna and Hugland first drew up a model predicting the medal tally at the 2004 Olympics, factoring in the per capita GDP of each country along with the population. It predicted 19 medals for India. The authors then fine-tuned the model by adding other factors — health, education and access to public information — all indicators in which India’s comparative scores is poor. The last variable, access to public information, was measured in terms of number of radio sets per 1,000 people. This model considered the 1996 Olympics because later data wasn’t available for all countries under study. The predictions improved vastly. For instance, while the first model had predicted just 30 medals for USA, the score in the second model was 81 — much closer to the US’ actual tally of 101. This model still predicted 14 medals for India whereas Leander Peas bronze was the lone success in those Games. Krishna, who teaches at the Stanford Institute of Public Policy of Duke University in Durham, US, told TOI through email that though the model could be made more accurate by adding more variables, the bottomline of India’s underachievement could not be wished away. ‘‘While different structural variables — such as GNP, infrastructure, literacy, radios etc — certainly matter, what also matters is the use that one makes of these features,’’ he said. ‘‘Countries where different (public and private) organisations exist which actively promote wide participation and nurture talent, are the ones that tend to overperform. They win medals beyond what their structural characteristics would suggest. Others, such as India, where public and private organisations are weak in nearly all sports, tend to perform considerably below their potential,’’ Krishna noted. The import is clear. While the structural variables for India are poor, these alone don’t explain why our medals cupboard is so bare. What it shows is that we have consistently been unable to make use of our available infrastructure for nurturing talent that could translate into a better record at the Olympics. HITTING BULLSEYE Move over astrology. Economists are better at predicting the Olympic medal haul of various nations. Nothing can be better proof of this than the model developed by

Daniel Johnson and Ayfer Ali of Colorado College, USA. The economists got 93% accuracy in predicting the total medals won by countries at Beijing and got their gold medal forecasts 92% right. All this, without taking into account any information on the quality of the athletes or their training programmes. The Johnson and Ali model simply studies five variables — population of the country, its per capita income, climate, political structure (along with nation-specific effects) and host advantage. Here are the predicted and actual results from the Beijing Games:

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India to be 4° hotter in 40 years

The effect of climate change on India could be far worse than previously estimated. Latest projections indicate that after 2050, temperatures would rise by 3-4 degrees over current levels and rainfall would become both heavier and less regular, posing a grave threat to agriculture. These are part of the research conducted by scientists at Pune’s Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, one of the key government institutions studying climate change in India. The findings are currently under review by a well-recognized scientific journal. This provides another, more serious wake-up call for India’s planners to look at adapting to the impending climatic changes. More important, it demands that the developed countries reduce their emissions substantially before their accumulated emissions turn these projections into a reality for India and other developing countries. If even a part of the projections turn into reality, the IITM modelling has dire implications for almost all aspects of life in the country — agriculture, power, water resources and biodiversity. The team at IITM, led by Krishna Kumar, used what is known as ‘‘A1B scenario’’ to pick a curve against which greenhouse emissions are calculated. The A1B scenario refers to a UN-accepted set of changes in the world economy that drive greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It presumes a global economy growing by 3% annually with high rates of investment and innovation, use of varied sources of energy and an economic convergence between the developed and developing countries. With the emission growth curve drawn from the A1B scenario, Kumar and his team used data relevant to India in complex climate models to generate future projections for dozens of climate parameters that allowed them to map out how temperatures and monsoon would change if emissions rose. ‘Cities to bear brunt of rise in temperature’ New Delhi: Research conducted by scientists at Pune’s Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology has revealed that temperatures would rise by 3-4 degrees by 2050, The results of their work will now be used by others to calibrate how vulnerable the country could be on different fronts if these projections come true. The study is an eye-opener. It says the rise of temperatures would be far more over northern India than the peninsular region. The temperatures would begin rising in northern and western regions initially and then the pattern would shift eastward. The increase would occur in both night and day time temperatures. Global modelling results have been suggesting that average annual precipitation in the country may see about a 8-10% increase. The pattern of increase in rainfall too is predicted to move from north and north-west India towards the east. The consequences are easy to see — cities like Delhi that are not able to handle the occasional heavy shower even today, as was the case this year, could get flooded rapidly. The scene may not be much better for cities like Mumbai.

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Watch The Border

Faced with a virtual takeover of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province by pro-Taliban extremists, spiralling inflation coupled with a foreign exchange crisis, and an ongoing impeachment of President Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s senate strangely debated developments in Jammu and Kashmir last week, following the blockade of the Kashmir valley by a popular agitation in Jammu. Unmindful of the reality that their own country is now internationally regarded as the epicentre of global terrorism, Pakistan’s worthy senators passed resolutions condemning alleged “ceasefire violations” along the Line of Control by the Indian army, expressed concern at the economic blockade of the Kashmir valley by “Hindu extremists” and reaffirmed support for the “struggle of Kashmiris” to “achieve their rights”, by an early solution of the Kashmir issue, in accordance with UN resolutions. Leader of the House, Raza Rabbani, in the presence of foreign minister Mehmood Qureishi, moved the resolutions. The Senate resolutions came at a time when Pakistan’s political leadership was moving to impeach Musharraf and Pakistan’s corps commanders were meeting in Rawalpindi, where, amongst other issues, the internal situation was being discussed. The resolution must have pleased Pakistan’s hawkish army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, who has made no secret of his views on India and Jammu and Kashmir. As head of the ISI, Kiyani had allegedly rigged the local bodies’ elections in 2005 and elections in PoK in 2006. The present ISI chief, Gen Nadeem Taj, is an ardent admirer of Musharraf. Pakistan’s senators and foreign minister obviously wanted to please the real rulers of the country — the army establishment — by passing stridently anti-Indian resolutions, while ignoring worldwide accusations about the ISI’s role in supporting terrorism. The move was also evidently intended to please the radicals in Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League, whose views on jihad and India are not very different from those of the military. While the ruling alliance appears to have the numbers to impeach Musharraf, the army would obviously not wish to see its former chief humiliated, even though it would not directly intervene in the impeachment process, apart from giving some “assistance” in floor crossings for the embattled president. American displeasure at Musharraf is now evident from the leaking of taped conversations between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto, in which Musharraf responds to Benazir’s complaints about his going back on assurances, by threatening the PPP leader with these words: “The Americans can call (you) all they want with their suggestions about you and me, let them call. You should understand something. Your security is based on the state of our relationship”. Barack Obama has warned Pakistan against backing Islamic zealots in Afghanistan and Jammu and Kashmir and the US commander in Afghanistan, General David McKiernan, has asserted: “I don’t believe that we can get the right outcome in Afghanistan as long as these militant sanctuaries exist across the border.” Moreover, even Pakistani writers like Ahmed Rashid have extensively documented how the ISI provides safe havens to the Taliban political and military leadership. The response of the army to these developments has been entirely predictable. The army has now started alleging that it has been compelled to back pro-Taliban groups, because India and Afghanistan are not only destabilising Baluchistan, but also helping pro-Taliban fundamentalists like Baitullah Mehsud, who are battling the Pakistan army. More significantly, the Pakistan army appears to be set to getting the civilian leaders to go along with a more hawkish policy in Kashmir. Pakistan’s new policies on Kashmir will involve strong backing for the separatist leadership and particularly for the hardliner Islamist, Syed Ali Shah Geelani. Infiltration is set to increase with a view to promoting violence and disrupting and discrediting the forthcoming state assembly elections. Internationally, there will be an active effort to say that Pakistan can cooperate on issues of terrorism, only if its demands on Jammu and Kashmir are backed. New Delhi’s response to these developments has been timid, despite international opinion now supporting its approach to the issue of J&K. The European parliament, for example, recently called for the settlement of Jammu and Kashmir taking into account Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s assertion that “borders cannot be changed”. The EU parliament has also noted that as the “world’s largest secular democracy” India has devolved democratic structures at all levels, while Pakistan still lacks democratic institutions in both PoK and in Gilgit and Baltistan. India can be assured of international understanding and support on the issue of J&K only if there is an abiding belief in its democratic and secular structures. For the first time in recent history, there is now a seemingly unbridgeable divide between the Kashmir valley and the Jammu region, a divide that undermines the very basis of our secular nationalism. Neither division of the J&K, as some demand, nor appeasement of separatist sentiments should be countenanced. This is the message that should be unambiguously conveyed to all those involved in both sides of the divide in Kashmir.

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China- Visiting The Past

Imagine visiting the Taj Mahal by day, and in the evening going to a theatre-cum-restaurant in Agra, where someone dressed like Mian Tansen sings Mian ki Malhar while you tuck into kakori kabab and chicken shahjahani! In Xi’an, in the Shaanxi province of China, you can do something similar. First, visit the beautiful Huaqing hot spring, 30 km away at the foot of the Lishan mountains, the favourite site of kings since the 11th century BC. It acquired fame during the reign of Tang dynasty emperor Xuanzong (685-762). Xuanzong built a lavish palace for his concubine Yang Guifei, reputed to be one of the four most beautiful women in ancient China. Then, come back for dinner at the Tang Dynasty Cultural Theatre and Restaurant in Xi’an. While you eat and drink, artists in Tang period costumes play ancient musical instruments, sing and dance. That China is an ‘old’ civilisation is well known. The exact import of the word old sinks into people like me while visiting the past in archaeological sites around Xi’an. The mausoleum of the First Emperor Qinshihuang (259-210 BC), located 36 km east of Xi’an, has an outer wall covering over 2 sq km. More than 2,000 years ago, it was reportedly built over three decades by more than half a million labourers. It is famous for its approximately 8,000 life-size terracotta warriors and horses, arranged in battle formations to guard the tomb. The main tomb, under a man-made hill for protection against plunder, is still unexcavated. The artistic quality, distinctive style and striking posture of each terracotta soldier, and their sheer strength in numbers fill us with a great sense of awe and curiosity about what lies buried deep in the tomb. One gets this same feeling of being overwhelmed by history at the Wild Goose Pagoda in Xi’an itself, or at the Huaqing hot spring. The Wild Goose Pagoda, built in 652, is famous for its association with the monk, Xuanzang, also known as Hsuan-tsang. He undertook a 17-year overland trip to India and back, and is famous for bringing about interaction between China and India. Inside the Da ci’en temple complex, he built a pagoda to translate the Sanskrit sutras and store them. The seven-storey mud and brick pagoda, tapering at the top, shows distinct signs of Indian temple architectural influence. Looking at the pagoda you marvel at the adventurous spirit of Xuanzang. He travelled across the Himalayas almost 1,400 years ago, without marked-out paths, nice trekking shoes and woollen anoraks, and no interpreter! At the Huaqing hot spring stands a recent statue of the beautiful Yang Guifei. There’s also the Wujian five-room suite, famous for the Xi’an incident. Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek of the Chinese Nationalist Party lived in this suite for a while. On December 12, 1936, two of his own generals, Zhang Xueliang and Yang Hucheng, staged a coup d’etat. Hearing gun shots at 4 a.m., Chiang Kai-shek escaped through the window and fled barefoot. He was arrested from the adjoining mountain and forced to negotiate with the armies of the Chinese Communist Party to jointly fight the Japanese. Seeing the bullet holes on the wall, and the bed, tables, chairs and other furniture purportedly used by Chiang Kai-shek gives one a palpable sense of visiting the past. In Humayun’s tomb, imagine seeing where the last emperor Bahadur Shah Zafar was hiding after the debacle in the First War of Independence. Among the millions of visitors who have been to Humayun’s tomb, it is doubtful whether more than a few hundred are even aware of the fact that the last Mughal emperor had taken refuge in this mausoleum after the unfortunate and tumultuous developments of September 1857. Apart from the richness of its past, the efficient manner in which the authorities have managed and organised the facilities for visiting the past are very impressive. Travel to the sites is through broad motorways. No tedious hours of navigating through traffic jams. Xi’an, an ancient city like Agra, had its own share of narrow roads, slums, and unauthorised encroachments. They have been cleared and replaced by broad avenues. North of the Wild Goose Pagoda, they have even built a delightful large plaza with a large number of fountains, parks and statues. Many archaeologists have strong opinions against restoration of ruined old monuments. However, for the ordinary tourists, seeing a restored old monument is a much more exciting experience than seeing old, dilapidated ruins and imagining — with the help of old manuscripts, pictures and paintings — what it must have looked like at the height of its glory. Wonder how many visitors to Delhi’s Red Fort can even imagine what the fort complex may have looked like before the British, after the First War of Independence, destroyed many of the pavilions and gardens and started to use it as their headquarters. The Chinese have managed to renovate and maintain the monuments well. Of course, someone has got to pay for all these facilities. Entry fees to the sites are charged to pay for their upkeep. However, foreign tourists pay the same as domestic tourists. India, with its enormous potential for tourism can certainly learn a thing or two about making the country’s rich heritage more accessible to tourists, and profiting from the venture, from its neighbour.

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A Necessary Victory

UPA should build on momentum of winning floor test
Constitutionally the signing of international treaties is a cabinet matter. But the India-US civil nuclear deal generated enormous political heat, with the Left withdrawing support to the government on the issue. A robust debate in Parliament, followed by the holding of a trust vote — where the government won a convincing victory — was the fairest institutional way of resolving it. While the debates went well on Monday, yesterday’s parliamentary proceedings were marred when BJP MPs produced bundles of currency notes just before the trust vote was about to be held, alleging that those were bribes paid by an SP leader for abstaining from the vote. These are serious charges if proven. But the concerned MPs ought to have gone to the Speaker or the police, as a determination of their veracity is hardly likely to be made on the floor of Parliament. Although BSP chief Mayawati called for the resignation of the prime minister on moral grounds, the mode of presentation of the evidence made things still murkier. A high-level inquiry needs to be conducted into the allegations and action taken if the charges can be proved. But once the dust has settled, it’s also time to get on with the business of governance. There are pressing tasks ahead for the government. Tackling inflation has to be the highest priority. The country can’t afford to be rudderless at this time. There are signs of an economic slowdown now, coupled with a sharp rise in inflation rates. Fiscal deficits are going out of whack, leading international rating agency Fitch to revise India’s local currency outlook from stable to negative. Standard and Poor’s is considering lowering India’s rating to below investment grade. If that happens it would lower investor confidence in the economy and further dim India’s growth outlook. That’s at a time when the draft National Employment Policy of the government has projected that the Indian economy must grow at 12.3 per cent a year in order to eliminate joblessness by 2012. Now that the government has passed the floor test and is no longer dependent on the Left for support, it’s imperative that it makes up for time lost and presses ahead with longdelayed reforms. It can open up insurance and retail, pass the pension reforms Bill, list public sector units for disinvestment. Disinvestment of PSUs as well as important Bills in the area of pension and banking reform had been held up because of opposition by the Left. Labour and company bankruptcy laws can also be looked at. Reform measures in these and other areas can give the economy the bounce it sorely needs.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may have described UPA’s victory in the trust vote as ‘‘impressive’’, but the voting pattern shows that the victory really came about thanks to ‘cross-voting’, otherwise known as horse-trading. As many as 14 MPs defied their parties to favour the trust vote, while four went against the whip by abstaining and three simply stayed away. Had all of these MPs voted according to their respective party’s diktats, the MPs in favour of the motion would have been 261, those against 277! Six SP MPs also went against the party whip and voted against the motion, as did Congress’s Kuldeep Bishnoi. Counting the 14 MPs who crossvoted for the government, seven who abstained or stayed away to help the UPA, and the seven SP and Congress MPs who voted against the motion, a total of 28 MPs defied party whips. The biggest victim of cross-voting was NDA, BJP in particular. As many as five BJP MPs — Somabhai Patel from Gujarat, K Manjunath and H T Sangliana (Karnataka), Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh from UP and Chandrabhan Singh from MP — voted for the government. Another BJP MP — Manorama Madhwaraj from Karnataka — abstained, while Babubhai Katara from Gujarat and Harisingh Rathod from Maharashtra simply didn’t turn up for the vote. Another party MP from Chikmagalur in Karnataka, D C Srikantappa, was also absent, but in his case it was because of a genuinely serious illness. The JD(U)’s Ramswaroop Prasad from Bihar was another NDA member who voted for the government, while his party colleague P P Koya of Lakshadweep stayed away. BJD’s Harihar Swain also defied his party whip. Another alliance constituent, NPF, could do little to prevent its lone MP Wangyuh Konyak from supporting the trust vote. The Akali Dal also was unable to prevent Sukhdev Singh Libra from abstaining. TDP saw one MP, M Jagannath voting for the government and another, D K Audikesavulu, abstaining. UPA had already sewn up TRS’s A Narendra who voted for it despite his party whip. That was true also of two MDMK members, L Ganesan and Gingee Ramachandran, as well as NLP’s Baleshwar Yadav.

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It’s Messy, But It Works

Plenty has been said over the past few days on television and in drawing rooms about the levels to which Indian politics has sunk. CPI general secretary A B Bardhan’s statement that the going rate for members of Parliament was Rs 25 crore is now folklore. And the bag of cash produced dramatically in the well of the House by the BJP MP from Morena at the fag end of the debate on Tuesday seemed to confirm the public’s dim view of politicians. It was indeed a new low in the history of Indian democracy. Do we then dismiss Parliament as a charade? Let’s not forget that the unprecedented act by the Morena MP, Ashok Argal, came after several hours of passionate debate and possibly at a time when the opposition had realised that they didn’t have the numbers to bring down the government. And the way the television channel, which claimed to have visuals of Argal getting the money, kept mum about it instead of airing them or giving them to the police was fishy to say the least. Over the better part of two days, the best speakers from major political parties held forth with varying degrees of eloquence on the Indo-US nuclear deal and its consequences for the country. Lalu Prasad was his inimitable self, leaving the House in splits with his brand of humour; Mohammed Salim showed why he is so highly regarded as a speaker in Bengal; Rahul Gandhi — not the finest of orators with his tinny voice — gave a statesman-like performance exhorting MPs to rise above party differences; and the Speaker, Somnath Chatterjee, did a fine job in extremely stressful circumstances. And the best part was that there was a mad scramble for seats in the visitors’ gallery to hear speeches. That is precisely what Parliament is supposed to do — debate issues of national importance before voters — but often ends up not doing. The figures for business conducted by Parliament speak for themselves. The number of sittings of Lok Sabha has come down from an yearly average of 124 in the first decade of 1952-61 to 81 between 1992 and 2001, a decline of 34 per cent. For the same period, the decline for Rajya Sabha was 20 per cent. The picture in the state assemblies is no different with an average of 20 to 50 sittings a year. This has had a direct impact on the number of Bills passed by Parliament. The annual average of the number of Bills passed has come down from 68 in the first decade to 50 between 1992 and 2001. Last year was particularly bad. In 2007, Parliament worked for the least number of days in non-election years during the last eight years. Though we — the citizens of India — vote our legislators into Parliament, we unfortunately know little about many of them. Undoubtedly, Parliament is a great leveller where farmers, teachers, business tycoons and scions of political dynasties sit next to each other. But a study by the Public Affairs Centre, Bangalore, on the present Lok Sabha throws a good deal of light on the actual composition of Parliament. The interesting bit of the study is an analysis of the wealth of MPs. This has become possible after the Supreme Court in a 2002 ruling made it mandatory for all candidates who contest Lok Sabha polls to declare their assets. The study says that on an average an MP is worth Rs 1.64 crore. If the scheduled caste and scheduled tribe members are taken out, the figure rises to Rs 2 crore. There is, of course, great variation in the wealth of individual MPs. But the average assets of MPs of all major parties are Rs 1 crore and upward. Only the members of the communist parties have assets well under Rs 1 crore. This shows that by and large only rich people are getting elected to Parliament. On top of that, nearly a quarter of the MPs have either criminal charges against them or cases pending in courts. Another finding is that a larger proportion of elected MPs have criminal cases against them compared to those who were defeated in the elections. This is not a pretty picture. But we must not make the mistake of judging Indian democracy and Parliament only by its low points. Except for a brief period during the Emergency, India’s democratic institutions have proved to be far more robust than what most people would have expected in 1947. Indeed, they stand out in comparison to most developing countries. Indian democracy can often be exasperating and messy. The Argal episode and the chaos that followed was one such instance. But we can rest assured that this will only be a temporary blip. After all, Aya Rams and Gaya Rams have been around for several decades. For all its chaos, Indian democracy and its institutions have served us reasonably well. Yes, in spite of the tamasha in Parliament that you all saw last evening.

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Continuing quest for life on Mars

For well over a century, the prospect of life on Mars has been the subject of feverish speculation among scientists. In 1877, Italian astronomer Giovanni Schiaparelli reported seeing “canali” on Mars through his telescope and thought that the dark areas he noticed on the planet were the result of vegetation. By 1894, Percival Lowell, a wealthy American astronomer, who established the observatory that now bears his name, was asserting that in the Martian canals “we are looking upon the result of the work of some sort of intelligent beings.” What those Martian beings might look like and how they would behave towards neighbours on planet Earth have been the subject of much science fiction writing and films. It is no wonder that humans began sending probes to study the Red Planet almost as soon as the space age began. Just three years after Sputnik went into space in 1957, the Soviet Union attempted to send the Korabl-4 but the probe did not even reach the orbit around the earth. Since then, close to 40 spacecraft have been despatched to Mars, but over 60 per cent of those missions also ended in failure. It was Mariner-4 launched by the United States that sent back the first close-up images of another planet as it flew past Mars in July 1965. Finally, the Viking-1 lander, again from the U.S., touched down safely on its surface in July 1976, and it was followed by the Viking-2 lander a few months later. Both Viking landers were sent to look for signs of life. When the planet appeared to be barren, so great was the disappointment that it eroded political support in the U.S. for further Mars missions.
But interest in Martian life has revived. If such life exists — or existed in the past — it is likely to take the form of tiny microbes, not little green men travelling in flying saucers. There was an uproar in 1996 when a team of U.S. scientists reported in the journal Science that a Martian meteorite found in Antarctica carried telltale traces of primitive microbial life. Although that interpretation of the traces found on the rock is now not generally accepted, the possibility of life on Mars is not discounted. Space probes have discovered signs that liquid water was present on the planet in the past and that water in the form of ice is still plentiful below the surface. Where there is water, there may well be microscopic life. The Phoenix Mars Lander, which has landed safely in the far north of the planet, joins three other spacecraft and two robotic rovers that are currently examining Mars in unprecedented detail. The objective is not to look for life, but to determine if the Martian arctic soil could support life. Let us wait and see what it finds.

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Evollution of Man

MR. MEAVE LEAKEY'S latest findings on man's evolution should further add to the reputation which the distinguished Leakey family had earlier won for itself for the light it had thrown with its sustained anthropological research in Kenya. At a time when the British rulers of Kenya had a rough time with their efforts to suppress the deadly Mau Mau rebellion in the mid- Fifties, the celebrated anthropologist, Dr. L.S.B. Leakey (1903- 1972), decided that it would be worthwhile to explore the origins of the Kikyus of the country and their traditions. His fossil discoveries were published in The Mau Mau and the Kikiyu along with a number of other seminal works on the Kenyan tribes, one of which is the revealing White African. While it would be far- fetched to imagine that research on African tribes and their origins initiated and sustained by anthropologists and the better understanding it had led to brought down the racial barriers in Africa and elsewhere, the scene today in that multi-racial continent is one of greater tolerance and understanding than in the earlier decades of the last century.
The older Dr. Leakey had established that the evolution of man had taken much earlier than had been previously believed and that it was centred in Africa and not in Asia. His son, Richard Leakey, carried the research further and if the present findings of Mr. Meave Leakey throw more light on a subject of unflagging interest, they could call for a fresh assessment of earlier data. The earliest fossil remains of the anthropoid ape dating back to over 30 million years had long been supposed to be very closely related to man while the skull fragments of the Neanderthal man indicated that the evolution of humans should have taken place much later at around 150,000 years ago. A distinction was also made between homo sapiens and homo erectus, the latter being regarded as the forerunners of the earlier species of Neanderthal man. The latest fossilised discoveries by paleontologists of a battered but complete skull estimated to be 3.5 million years old, suggesting a different breed of early humans, should add to the uncertainty about the evolution of man. The questions which they might throw up would hinge upon whether in the course of its evolution, the human race had looked very different and even unrecognisable from how it had been during the last few thousand years of recorded history. It might have taken anywhere between several thousands and millions of years for the fossilised remains scattered across this millennia to bring about an evolving resemblance to the human being. Obviously the humans did not arrive as the finished product which the non-anthropologists might presume it to be. The evolutionary conveyor belt on which the human race was placed should have been moving slowly to accommodate mutations. The latest discovery of a complete skull and face of an entirely new breed of early humans dating back to 3.5 million years suggests how the human anatomy was responding to changes across time.
The evolution of man could not have been in a straight line placing him in succession to the earlier species which were going to perish. The rest of the pre-historic creatures amidst whom he had to take his place should have found him easy prey and it was going to take a long time for him to emerge from being the hunted to become the hunter. The crucial role which the evolving human race was going to acquire for itself was determined by the special qualities of the brain enclosed by the cranium, the earlier shape of which has now been discovered. It should probably tell us a great deal more about how the human head mentioned by Mr. Leakey played a crucial role in the evolutionary process heading towards the ascendancy of man over other species.

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New find strengthens Darwin's theory

In what is one more body blow to those who question Darwin's theory of evolution, scientists recently have discovered well-preserved fossils of a fish that provide the vital transitional link between fish and land dwelling four-legged vertebrates — tetrapods. One of the many objections to Darwin's theory is based on the apparent lack of transitional links and intermediate forms in fossil records to prove conclusively that evolution had ever occurred. But the discovery of three well-preserved nearly complete skeletons of Tiktaalik roseae, "an intermediate between fish with fins and tetrapods with limbs" has proved the sceptics wrong. Tiktaalik, with its many morphological and functional changes, has provided the much sought after scientific evidence to the transition of fish to land living animals. Found in sedimentary rocks belonging to the Late Devonian period, 375 million years ago, in the Canadian Arctic region, the fossils show characteristics of a shallow water river deposition in subtropical to tropical climatic conditions before drifting continental plates carried them to their present habitat. Tiktaalik fits well between the earlier evidences of fish able to walk in shallow water that lived some 385 million years ago and fish with limbs bearing digits that lived about 365 million years ago. Shallow water has been found to play a pivotal role in the evolutionary changes; the fish developed a new mechanism of head movement, respiration and body support system, thus allowing Tiktaalik to exploit both water and sub-aerial habitats.
Tiktaalik provides a vital missing link in the fish to tetrapod transition spanning a period of about ten million years. For a transitional fossil to fit snugly between existing fossil records, it should resemble as well as differ from those immediately higher and lower down in the phylogenic tree. Tiktaalik has many morphological features that are intermediate between its nearest neighbours. In fact, it resembles a poorly preserved animal that belongs to a lower order in the evolutionary tree. The discovery of Tiktaalik can be likened to the finding of proto-bird Archaeopteryx, considered a breakthrough in tracing the transition from reptiles to birds. Despite the finding of a vital link, there still exist lacunae in fossil records tracing the transitional changes going up to tetrapods. Tiktaalik found in the Canadian Arctic, one of the most inhospitable terrains, is proof that rocks do contain within them many secrets waiting to be uncovered. The answer lies in searching for the right rocks in the most probable depositional environment and geological time period for the missing link, just the way scientists zeroed in on the most probable rocks while looking for Tiktaalik fossils. The latest discovery of Australopithecus anamensis, a transitional link in the evolution of humans in the Middle Awash region in northeastern Ethiopia, which is also home to seven other human-like species, is yet another example.

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Rendezvous with an asteroid

THE LANDING OF a spacecraft on Eros, an asteroid in deep space, is truly a magnificent achievement for more than one reason. Launched by the Applied Physics Laboratory of the Johns Hopkins University, the spacecraft Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR), is the first cosmic probe launched by a non-NASA (the U.S. National Aeronautic and Space Administration) outfit. It is the first time that a space vehicle has landed on an asteroid which should give it a grandstand view of the star- spangled universe. And it is not exactly a ``near Earth rendezvous'' as it has been called since Eros is quite far away at a distance of 165 million miles. The Earth-based manoeuvring which has gone into the steering of the spacecraft should have been highly intensive and brilliantly executed to enable it to catch up with the asteroid which should have been extremely difficult even if it had only been moving at high speeds. The movements of all asteroids and the directions they take unlike those of planets are highly irregular and the landing of NEAR virtually turns out to be a trapping of Eros into the service of space scientists.
Sir Arthur Clarke who is globally known for his studies of space exploration had actually regarded such a rendezvous which he called ``interplanetary hitch-hiking'' almost as an impossibility in his Greetings, Carbon-Based Bipeds. Such hitch-hiking has now turned out to be a reality and the space vehicle it has left on Eros could have a piggyback ride on the asteroid which would continue to meander in space as it has been doing for several million years. The landing of the space vehicle on Eros should immensely enrich the knowledge about what is going on with its beaming of data to Earth-based stations from the asteroid. The landing of NEAR on Eros also provides an occasion to recall the potential hazards which were foreseen by space scientists earlier. Asteroids of varying shapes and sizes - mostly of rocks - range from those which are quite a few hundred miles in width to those much smaller. The possibility of asteroids moving wildly in space and straying into Earth's orbit to hit the planet with a destructive ferocity is no longer deemed as unlikely. Such hits had taken place earlier and one of them is said to have snuffed out the hardy dinosaurs which roamed over the Earth for as long as 150 million years ago to black out the planet from the Sun under several million tonnes of dust. Such a catastrophe is now being foreseen for the Earth during the next century from a comet heading towards it. The defensive measures being considered for averting the catastrophe envisage the deflection of the comets or asteroids away from the Earth. The NASA had set up a committee in 1994 headed by Dr. Eugene Shoemaker to draw up a plan to identify and catalogue possible collisions of comets and asteroids with the Earth. Such a collision had already taken place within the solar system itself when the comet christened as Shoemaker-Levy had crashed on Jupiter and the cosmic disaster was captured in a remarkable live telecast. It is learnt that such near misses, known and unknown, are already said to be taking place. Direct hits by these asteroids would spell doom and could litter the Earth with craters like the one left in the Gulf of Mexico by an asteroid-hit a few million years ago
The landing of NEAR on Eros should throw more light on asteroids which are not just space jetsam and should initiate further studies on how they came into being. However, unlike in the case of the moon from where soil samples were brought to Earth by astronauts, access to the geology of asteroid rocks million of miles away can only be through hi-tech space probes. Space scientists have in fact already gained such access to just as far away Mars and discovered that it has water in its poles.

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Mysteries of the brain

PENETRATING STUDIES CARRIED out so far suggest conclusively that the human brain is the most unexplored and mystifying territory which would baffle scientists for quite a long time yet. Dr. V. S. Ramachandran, Professor and Director of the Centre for Brain and Cognition at the University of California, Santiago, in his recent presentation of the subject at the Apollo Hospitals gave some tantalising glimpses of the ways in which the brain behaves and responds for dictating behaviour and which he has dealt with in absorbing detail in his Phantoms in the Brainwith his co- author, Sandra Blakeslee. The picture which emerges is of a mocking, teasing presence inside the human head submitting itself to the exacting demands of Einsteins on the one hand and remaining hopelessly beyond the reach of morons on the other. If, as Dr. Ramachandran has pointed out, India's achievements have ranged from the realistic to the abstract, it is an indication of the powers locked up in the brain which could throw up glittering images of the cosmic dance of Shiva brought to life in sculptures.
The diverse creativity of the human brain has enriched the world with discoveries spread from that of the Copernican theory which replaced Earth and the planets by Sun as the centre of the universe much to the indignation of the Roman Catholic Church to the Theory of Relativity. It had led to the flight of imagination in the plays of Shakespeare to the writings of Boris Pasternak who had kept alive the longing for freedom in the Soviet Union even while remaining silent for nearly twenty years. However, it could go haywire and throw up hallucinations which are ``more real than reality''. A great deal which yet remains to be known about the brain is about its right and left ``hemispheres'' with the former having a much broader ``searchlight'' than the latter. While the left hemisphere is concerned with speech, language and semantics, the right is projected by Dr.Ramachandran as the ``intellectual'' half for taking care of the ``more subtle aspects of language, such as nuances of metaphor, allegory and ambiguity''. Any damage to either of the hemispheres could affect proper brain coordination which would look strange and despairing to a normal person. Among the lessons which are taught in elementary physics is that the image in a mirror is ``as far away from the mirror as the object is in front of it''. Dr. Ramachandran mentions the case of mentally ill patients who take this description literally and try to reach the image on the other side of the mirror as the result of the inability to distinguish the real object from its image. It is an instance of a brain suffering from a disturbance to its intricately placed perceptions.
Among the oft-mentioned instances of the strange manifestations of the brain is the still very little understood mathematical genius of Srinivasa Ramanujan. The world would never have known him but for the equations mailed to the Cambridge mathematician G.H. Hardy who was initially inclined to dismiss them as the scribblings of a ``crackpot''. It was perhaps another case of the brain taking over at the right time when Hardy thought again of the equations and saw that no one else except Ramanujan had the imagination so far to think about them. The equations which could well have remained as just the jottings on a piece of paper as they might have to most were coming alive to Hardy to put him on a trail blazed by Ramanujan. If the brain is a teaser, it could be because it is very demanding on the geniuses who have blazed and would continue to blaze new trails in their chosen disciplines. The brain which intrigued the caveman with images on the wall thrown up by the sunlight continues to tease today's cosmonauts with the beckoning, expanding space. The real wonder here, however, is the brain which comprehends it all.

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INSATS - Flying High

THERE IS ONE more Insat communication satellite in space. The Indian Space Research Organisation's newest bird, Insat-3E, was successfully put into orbit early Sunday morning aboard Europe's Ariane 5 rocket. Operations to move the satellite to its allotted position 36,000 km above the equator have begun. Insat-3E will join four other Insats already in orbit, making the Insat system, in ISRO's words, "one of the largest domestic communication satellite systems in the Asia Pacific region." After the 3E becomes operational, the Insat system will have 128 transponders available for communications and broadcasting. ISRO intends to double that capacity by 2007.
ISRO's success with the Insats has been, as with its other endeavours, the result of farsighted planning. Vikram Sarabhai, who began the space programme, foresaw even in the 1960s how satellites could provide telephony and TV services in a vast and poorly connected country like India. In the mid-1970s, using an American satellite, ISRO conducted the world's earliest large-scale experiment in direct TV broadcasting. Over 2,000 villages all over the country were equipped with direct reception sets. This was long before cable TV or direct-to-home broadcasting was thought of. With the experimental APPLE satellite launched in 1981, ISRO got its first experience of building its own communications satellite.
When ISRO mooted the idea of building an Indian satellite system, the Insats, neither the Ministry of Communications nor the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting — which would be the principal user agencies — was enthusiastic. Both thought that their ground infrastructure sufficed. Considerable persuasion was necessary before the two departments, along with the Ministry of Civil Aviation (which in those days had charge of the India Meteorological Department), agreed jointly to fund the first Insats. The Insat-1 satellites were built in the United States and launched abroad. Even here, ISRO took over the handling of these satellites immediately after launch. The first of the Insat-2 satellites, which were designed and built within the country, was launched in 1992. Four more Insat-2s were built and launched in rapid succession. They had their problems, often for reasons beyond ISRO's control. But then so did the foreign-built Insat-1s. The Insat-2 satellites raised the Insat transponder capacity manyfold and put the Insat system squarely on the map. The Insat-3 satellites have undoubtedly benefited from ISRO's experience with their predecessors.
ISRO has demonstrated that it can build world class communication satellites. One of its aims must now be to make sure the Insat system serves much of the country's communications and broadcasting needs. The private sector is already the dominant force in satellite TV broadcasts, but many private TV channels are currently carried on foreign satellites. Likewise, private sector investments in telecommunications will only grow. At a time when international satellite companies want to expand their share of the Indian market, the Insats must be able to attract private sector customers and not get restricted to serving Government agencies. ISRO has already taken some steps to make it easier for companies to lease Insat transponders. Even so, the procedures for allocating and leasing transponders remain cumbersome. Since aggressive marketing could hold the key to Insat's future growth, ISRO needs to ponder further steps. For instance, is the Insat Coordination Committee, on which the three primary Government user departments are represented and which controls the allocation of the Insat transponders, still necessary? Another issue is whether corporatisation in some form of the Insat system will help. These are thorny issues no doubt, but for that very same reason, they need to be resolved speedily.

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